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[title] => Po prvi put u povijesti bazen arktičkog leda u Sibiru još se nije počeo smrzavati, znanstvenici zabrinuti
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Po prvi put otkako se pamti, glavni se bazen arktičkog leda u Sibiru nije još počeo smrzavati, a kraj je listopada.
Kalendarsko kašnjenje leda u moru Laptev prouzročeno je neobično dugotrajnom toplinom na sjeveru Rusije i prodorom struja iz Atlantika, kažu klimatolozi koji upozoravaju na moguće utjecaje ovoga procesa na čitavu polarnu regiju, a posredno i na svijet. Temperature oceana na tom su se području nedavno popele na više od 5 stupnjeva Celzijusa iznad prosjeka, nakon rekordnih vrućina prošle zime.
Zarobljenoj toplini treba dugo da se rasprši u atmosferu, čak i u ovo doba godine kad se sunce u Sibiru iznad horizonta zadržava tek sat ili dva na dan. Grafikoni morskog leda u moru Laptev, koji u ovo doba godine obično pokazuju zdrav sezonski rast, trenutno izgledaju posve ravni, javlja Guardian.
"Nedostatak smrzavanja ove jeseni bez presedana je u sibirskom arktičkom području", naglašava Zachary Labe, istraživač sa državnog Sveučilišta u Koloradu. On smatra kako je to u skladu s očekivanim utjecajem klimatskih promjena koje ljudi uglavnom ignoriraju. „Bez sustavnog smanjenja emisije stakleničkih plinova, vjerojatnost našeg prvog ljeta bez leda povećava se već do sredine 21. stoljeća ', ustvrdio je Labe.
Ovogodišnji toplinski val u Sibiru potenciran je barem 600 puta višim industrijskim i poljoprivrednim emisijama stakleničkih plinova, prema nedavnom istraživanju. Toplija temperatura zraka nije, međutim, jedini faktor koji usporava formiranje leda: klimatske promjene također potiskuju više atlantskih struja na Arktik i remete uobičajeno raslojavanje između dubinskih toplih voda i hladne površine, što također kvari standardnu „recepturu“ za led.
„Posljednjih 14 godina, od 2007. do 2020., najniži je niz ledene kreacije u satelitskom zapisu koji se vodi od 1979. godine “, rekao je Walt Meier, viši znanstveni znanstvenik u američkom Nacionalnom centru za snijeg i led. On kaže kako dio starog leda na Arktiku sada potpuno nestaje, a sezonski led postaje sve tanji: prosječna debljina novog leda upola je manja od, primjerice, one iz 1980-ih. Trend silaska vjerojatno će se nastaviti sve dok Arktik ne dobije prvo ljeto bez leda, rekao je Meier, a to će dogoditi između 2030. i 2050. Više nije pitanje hoće li, upozorava, nego kada.
Znanstvenici su zabrinuti da bi odgođeno zamrzavanje moglo u konačnici ubrzati otapanje ledene kape. Već je dobro poznato da manji ledeni pokrov znači i manje bijele površine koje reflektiraju sunčevu toplinu natrag u svemir. Ali to nije jedini razlog zbog kojeg se Arktik zagrijava više nego dvostruko brže od globalnog prosjeka.
More Laptev poznato je oduvijek kao sjeverno„rodilište leda“, koji se pred zimu stvara duž tamošnje obale, a zatim plovi na zapad noseći hranjive sastojke preko Arktika, da bi se u proljeće razbio u tjesnacu Frama između Grenlanda i Svalbarda. Ako se led u moru Laptev kasno formira, bit će znatno tanji i više je nego izgledno da će se otopiti prije nego što stigne do tjesnaca Fram. To prekida cijeli krug života i znači puno manje hranjivih sastojaka za arktički plankton, koji time ima smanjeni kapacitet za izvlačenje ugljičnog dioksida iz atmosfere.
Dr. Stefan Hendricks, specijalist za fiziku morskog leda s Instituta Alfred Wegener, kaže da su trendovi kretanja morskog leda mračni, ali ne i iznenađujući: “Više je frustrirajuće nego šokantno. To već dugo predviđamo, ali donositelji odluka ne reagiraju i ne poduzimaju bitne mjere.“
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Po prvi put otkako se pamti, glavni se bazen arktičkog leda u Sibiru nije još počeo smrzavati, a kraj je listopada.
Kalendarsko kašnjenje leda u moru Laptev prouzročeno je neobično dugotrajnom toplinom na sjeveru Rusije i prodorom struja iz Atlantika, kažu klimatolozi koji upozoravaju na moguće utjecaje ovoga procesa na čitavu polarnu regiju, a posredno i na svijet. Temperature oceana na tom su se području nedavno popele na više od 5 stupnjeva Celzijusa iznad prosjeka, nakon rekordnih vrućina prošle zime.
Zarobljenoj toplini treba dugo da se rasprši u atmosferu, čak i u ovo doba godine kad se sunce u Sibiru iznad horizonta zadržava tek sat ili dva na dan. Grafikoni morskog leda u moru Laptev, koji u ovo doba godine obično pokazuju zdrav sezonski rast, trenutno izgledaju posve ravni, javlja Guardian.
"Nedostatak smrzavanja ove jeseni bez presedana je u sibirskom arktičkom području", naglašava Zachary Labe, istraživač sa državnog Sveučilišta u Koloradu. On smatra kako je to u skladu s očekivanim utjecajem klimatskih promjena koje ljudi uglavnom ignoriraju. „Bez sustavnog smanjenja emisije stakleničkih plinova, vjerojatnost našeg prvog ljeta bez leda povećava se već do sredine 21. stoljeća ', ustvrdio je Labe.
Ovogodišnji toplinski val u Sibiru potenciran je barem 600 puta višim industrijskim i poljoprivrednim emisijama stakleničkih plinova, prema nedavnom istraživanju. Toplija temperatura zraka nije, međutim, jedini faktor koji usporava formiranje leda: klimatske promjene također potiskuju više atlantskih struja na Arktik i remete uobičajeno raslojavanje između dubinskih toplih voda i hladne površine, što također kvari standardnu „recepturu“ za led.
„Posljednjih 14 godina, od 2007. do 2020., najniži je niz ledene kreacije u satelitskom zapisu koji se vodi od 1979. godine “, rekao je Walt Meier, viši znanstveni znanstvenik u američkom Nacionalnom centru za snijeg i led. On kaže kako dio starog leda na Arktiku sada potpuno nestaje, a sezonski led postaje sve tanji: prosječna debljina novog leda upola je manja od, primjerice, one iz 1980-ih. Trend silaska vjerojatno će se nastaviti sve dok Arktik ne dobije prvo ljeto bez leda, rekao je Meier, a to će dogoditi između 2030. i 2050. Više nije pitanje hoće li, upozorava, nego kada.
Znanstvenici su zabrinuti da bi odgođeno zamrzavanje moglo u konačnici ubrzati otapanje ledene kape. Već je dobro poznato da manji ledeni pokrov znači i manje bijele površine koje reflektiraju sunčevu toplinu natrag u svemir. Ali to nije jedini razlog zbog kojeg se Arktik zagrijava više nego dvostruko brže od globalnog prosjeka.
More Laptev poznato je oduvijek kao sjeverno„rodilište leda“, koji se pred zimu stvara duž tamošnje obale, a zatim plovi na zapad noseći hranjive sastojke preko Arktika, da bi se u proljeće razbio u tjesnacu Frama između Grenlanda i Svalbarda. Ako se led u moru Laptev kasno formira, bit će znatno tanji i više je nego izgledno da će se otopiti prije nego što stigne do tjesnaca Fram. To prekida cijeli krug života i znači puno manje hranjivih sastojaka za arktički plankton, koji time ima smanjeni kapacitet za izvlačenje ugljičnog dioksida iz atmosfere.
Dr. Stefan Hendricks, specijalist za fiziku morskog leda s Instituta Alfred Wegener, kaže da su trendovi kretanja morskog leda mračni, ali ne i iznenađujući: “Više je frustrirajuće nego šokantno. To već dugo predviđamo, ali donositelji odluka ne reagiraju i ne poduzimaju bitne mjere.“
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19. svibanj 2024 09:55
