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[title] => Glavni ekonomist HNB: Broj stečajeva lani je bio niži nego i u dobrim godinama, no tek kad kriza prođe, jasnije će se vidjeti koja poduzeća neće preživjeti
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Vedran Šošić, glavni ekonomist Hrvatske narodne banke, u N1 Studiju uživo komentirao je stanje u hrvatskim bankama.
- Stanje je dobro. Banke su pune likvidnosti”, rekao je Vedran Šošić i dodao: “Kriza nije krenula u bankama, one su sposobne kreditirati gospodarstvo i ublažiti utjecaje krize. To govori u prilog snage financijskog sustava. Naravno da se zbog krize dobit banaka prepolovila, prisutni su rizici, ne znamo kako će se kriza razvijati, no zato smo naložili da još jednu godinu ne isplaćuju dobit. Stanje je dobro, ali rizici su povišeni i treba biti oprezan.
Šošić ističe da je kreditiranje tvrtki išlo dobro posljednjih godinu dana:
- Stopa rasta kredita je preko 6% nefinancijskim poduzećima. No kreditima se mogu premostiti problemi u likvidnosti ako je poduzeće zdravo i solventno. No, zbog pada prihoda čak i unatoč javnim potporama, dio poduzeća neće preživjeti krizu. Ako se gledaju stečajevi, prošle godine je broj bio niži nego i u dobrim godinama. To je djelomično uvjetovano i sporijim radom sudova, ali činjenica je da smo imali izdašne javne potpore, moratorije i to je na površini održalo i poduzeća koja bi možda već propala. Kad kriza prođe, jasnije će se vidjeti koja poduzeća neće preživjeti.
Što se tiče intervencije HNB-a, kaže:
- HNB je osigurao da u dobrim vremenima banke na stranu stave kapital pa da u lošim vremenima imaju dovoljno za podržati poduzeća. Višak likvidnosti doseže 67 milijardi kuna, iznimno smo puno lividnosti kreirali. Omogućili smo povoljan regulatorni tretman, nismo banke prisiljavali da rekvalificiraju kredite. Učinili smo sve da banke imaju kapital i one su još profitabilne.
Šošić kaže i da ih je ugodno iznenadio zadnji kvartal rastom investicija.
- Gospodarstvo se uspjelo dobro prilagoditi uvjetima epidemije. Oporavak se nastavio u siječnju i veljači. Rast bi ove godine mogo biti veći, no postoje rizici - dodao je.
Na kraju se osvrnuo i na “eksploziju” javnog duga:
- To je najvećim dijelom rezultat zaduživanja, fiskalinh poticaja i mjera… Sad to nije pronlem, kamatne stope su na povijesno niskim razinama. Proračun će uštedjeti nekoliko milijuna kuna, dug je veći, ali je jeftiniji za servisiranje. Problem je ako bi došlo do rasta kamatnih stopa ili ako se javi nova kriza, u kojoj država treba intervenirati - kaže Šošić za N1.
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Vedran Šošić, glavni ekonomist Hrvatske narodne banke, u N1 Studiju uživo komentirao je stanje u hrvatskim bankama.
- Stanje je dobro. Banke su pune likvidnosti”, rekao je Vedran Šošić i dodao: “Kriza nije krenula u bankama, one su sposobne kreditirati gospodarstvo i ublažiti utjecaje krize. To govori u prilog snage financijskog sustava. Naravno da se zbog krize dobit banaka prepolovila, prisutni su rizici, ne znamo kako će se kriza razvijati, no zato smo naložili da još jednu godinu ne isplaćuju dobit. Stanje je dobro, ali rizici su povišeni i treba biti oprezan.
Šošić ističe da je kreditiranje tvrtki išlo dobro posljednjih godinu dana:
- Stopa rasta kredita je preko 6% nefinancijskim poduzećima. No kreditima se mogu premostiti problemi u likvidnosti ako je poduzeće zdravo i solventno. No, zbog pada prihoda čak i unatoč javnim potporama, dio poduzeća neće preživjeti krizu. Ako se gledaju stečajevi, prošle godine je broj bio niži nego i u dobrim godinama. To je djelomično uvjetovano i sporijim radom sudova, ali činjenica je da smo imali izdašne javne potpore, moratorije i to je na površini održalo i poduzeća koja bi možda već propala. Kad kriza prođe, jasnije će se vidjeti koja poduzeća neće preživjeti.
Što se tiče intervencije HNB-a, kaže:
- HNB je osigurao da u dobrim vremenima banke na stranu stave kapital pa da u lošim vremenima imaju dovoljno za podržati poduzeća. Višak likvidnosti doseže 67 milijardi kuna, iznimno smo puno lividnosti kreirali. Omogućili smo povoljan regulatorni tretman, nismo banke prisiljavali da rekvalificiraju kredite. Učinili smo sve da banke imaju kapital i one su još profitabilne.
Šošić kaže i da ih je ugodno iznenadio zadnji kvartal rastom investicija.
- Gospodarstvo se uspjelo dobro prilagoditi uvjetima epidemije. Oporavak se nastavio u siječnju i veljači. Rast bi ove godine mogo biti veći, no postoje rizici - dodao je.
Na kraju se osvrnuo i na “eksploziju” javnog duga:
- To je najvećim dijelom rezultat zaduživanja, fiskalinh poticaja i mjera… Sad to nije pronlem, kamatne stope su na povijesno niskim razinama. Proračun će uštedjeti nekoliko milijuna kuna, dug je veći, ali je jeftiniji za servisiranje. Problem je ako bi došlo do rasta kamatnih stopa ili ako se javi nova kriza, u kojoj država treba intervenirati - kaže Šošić za N1.
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19. svibanj 2024 00:37
